FP ELECTION WATCH

FP Staff Report

About three weeks back FP formed election teams in the four provincial headquarters to conduct small-scale gallop polls for the forthcoming elections.

The results are being published in four parts, starting today.

PART 1-NWFP AND FATA

BASIC FACTS

1.                  TOTAL NUMBER OF NA SEATS                      47

CONSISTING OF NWFP SEATS                       35

FATA SEATS                                                        12

2.                  MAJOR PARTIES FIELDING CANDIDATES ON THE 47 SEATS ARE:

A)    MMA                   39 seats

B)     PPP                       23 seats

C)    ANP                      22 seats

D)    AML (Q)               20 seats

E)     PTI (Imran Khan)   18 seats

F)     PML (N)                13 seats

G)    PPP (Sherpao)       10 seats

3.                  PML (N) candidates are non-existent in FATA, while PML (Q) has fielded only two candidates for the 12 FATA seats. Imran Khan’s PTI has fielded 18 candidates, more than PML (N) and PPP (Sherpao). This is encouraging, but the candidates face an uphill task.

4.                  The most interesting feature to watch for in the elections in NWFP will be the very effective alliance between PPPP and ANP. PPP (Sherpao) has been nearly eliminated from the race. Both the major factions of PML will have a very tough time against the PPPP/ANP alliance and the MMA candidates.

5.                  Another important trend to watch for is that compared to the last elections, the religious parties represented by MMA have gained popularity in NWFP/FATA. The biggest gainer from party based elections in FATA will be MMA.

6.                 Our NWFP correspondent has predicted the following results in the 47 seats of NWFP/FATA. The high number of independent and other candidates in his estimation are mostly the FATA seats.

7.         If our correspondent’s predictions are accurate, a PPPP/ANP provincial coalition government may be highly likely.

BASIC FACTS

1.                  TOTAL NUMBER OF NA GENERAL SEATS                     150
TWO SEATS ARE FOR ISLAMABAD WHILE THE REST ARE FOR PUNJAB.

2.                  MAJOR PARTIES FIELDING CANDIDATES ON THE D150 GENERAL SEATS ARE:

                                                                                APPROX,

3.                  The race in Punjab is essentially triangular – PPPP, PML (Q) and PML (N). It is expected that these three parties in a close fight will share over 85% of the seats in Punjab. Independents will have a very small share of the seats this time around, as the general mood of the public appears to be to vote for the major parties. Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaaf has been able to field candidates in nearly 1/3^rd of the National Assembly seats in Punjab, but any major success is highly unlikely. National Alliance is in a similar situation.

4.                  We are predicting 12 out of the 47 NA seats for MMA in NWFP/FATA i.e. 25% of the seats. In Punjab, however, things are going to be much tougher for MMA. Also PPPP and PML (N) have played their strategy well in Punjab. In the early days of the electioneering it was being rumoured that PPPP and PML (N) are negotiating seat adjustments in Punjab. This would have benefited PML (Q) as it would have been very difficult to convince either party’s voters support en bloc the other party. Now PML (N) is assured of victory in its strongholds while PPPP will benefit from the split in PML votes in many constituencies.

5.                  Our Punjab correspondent has predicted the following results bases on his Gallop survey on a seat-to-seat basis:

6.                  If our correspondent’s predictions are correct a coalition government will be the order of the day in the Punjab Assembly and a PPPP/PML (N) alliance seems to be the only likely possibility.

As we approach the D-Day for Election 2002,surprisingly enough the uncertainty in the results has increased. Our correspondents have reported some changes in the fortunes of the candidates. Our Punjab party seat count has been revised with the major gainer being PML (Q) and the major loser being PML (N). Our final analysis of the 272 National Assembly General Seats presented below incorporates most of these changes. The actual figure for the NA seats is 342 and includes 60 women (proportionate basis) and 10 minority seats.

With about 230 candidates the PPPP has fielded the maximum number for the 272 seats. PML (Q) follows them with about 190 candidates and MMA with about 170. The PML (N) trails at 4^th place with about 165 people.

All together 2098 candidates are contesting for the NA General Seats, Seat adjustments have been made by all the 4 major parties on a sat to seat to seat basis and on a provincial level but there is no major sat adjustment on a national level.

For the 60 women seas 218 candidates have filed their papers and for the 10 minority seats there are 45 non-Muslim candidates. Of these 45 candidates 13 are independent, 8 belong to the PPPP, 7 to PML (Q), 5 to the National Alliance, 4 to PML (N), 2 each to ANP, MMA, MQM and PMAP, an I each to PML (J) and PPPP (Sherpao).

Our final seat count for the NA General Seats is given below:

The full assembly of 342 members is expected to have the following composition. The results are presented in a small band of +/- 5% of the expected number of seats for each party:

To form a simple majority in the parliament 172 seats will be required. No permutation of 2 parties will be able to muster this support, although a PPPP/PML (N) will come very close to it. However, this is unlikely as this coalition will not be able to work at the provincial level. Even if we add MMA an the ANP to the coalition at the national level giving them a total sea count of about 188 – 207, it will be very difficult for he coalition to form the governments in Sindh and Balochistan. On the other hand if we look at a PML (Q) led coalition and we take the upper end of the band for all the parties/independents except the PPPP/PML (N)/MMA the maximum number of seats adds up to only 163.

Is a PPPP/PML (Q) coalition possible or will the president be forced to nominate the PM and the CM’s???