A house of cards

A.B. Shahid
29-04-08

 

Last week EU's Javier Solana predicted (or ordained?) that Mr. Musharuff will complete his term as president - something odd for a seasoned diplomat. This was followed by a more irresponsible outburst by French President Nicolas Sarkozy who predicted that Pakistan could crash like a "house of cards" because it is next to Afghanistan and has an atomic bomb.
Perhaps, after Bush Junior's exit from power, some Europeans may pursue the Neo-con agenda. What makes this view credible is that Sarkozy also said, "there is a minimum of principles in our diplomacy", and dashed all hopes of peace talks with "terrorists" like Hammas, Al-Qaeda, Taliban and Iranian President Ahmedineijad (by implication also a terrorist). Indeed, after Sarkozy's rise to the top, principles find minimal expression in French foreign policy.
Yet, Sarkozy's view about Pakistan needs examination, for he isn't too far off target. The rising friction between the principal coalition partners signals impending political turmoil that the nation could live through only at a huge cost. Tragically, an over-confident PPP is fuelling the crisis despite the soft-spoken but unconvincing denials thereof by its spokespersons.
The prorogation of the National Assembly without passing the oft-promised resolution for restoring the judiciary and Asif Zardari's sudden dash to Dubai reflect poorly on his much talked about political foresight. Clearly, he doesn't realize that PPP's supposedly carefully stage-managed backtracking on its promise to restore the judiciary has now become obvious even to dumbest stakeholder.
So far, the plan was being covered up by the end-less PPP-PML(N) 'muzakerat' but this smokescreen is no longer as opaque as PPP believes it to be. People can see through it quite clearly. Yet, the charade goes on convincing everyone that PPP learnt nothing from the past, especially its unceremonious exit from power more than once.
Aside from the confusion surrounding judiciary's restoration, there are many issues that threaten to bring people on to the streets before long. Little has been done to avert this possibility because the government is blinded by its advisors who (for highly questionable reasons) refuse to acknowledge that food prices have risen not so much due to supply shortages but because of the distortions caused by greed-stricken links in the supply chain.
Despite tripling of crude oil prices since the government invented a pricing formula, refineries still get 5% of crude oil import price as their share. On this price are loaded petroleum development and freight equalization surcharges and on this hugely inflated price, oil marketing companies get 3.5% as their commission and petrol pump dealers another 4% as theirs. Yet, instead of rationalizing the formula, prices are being pushed up to cut the oil subsidy.
Fiscal deficit is indeed frightening but besides subsidies, a huge part of it is made up of the many un-investigated frauds in state outfits and tax collection. Even corporations (the 'documented' sector) did not pass on to FBR all the billions they collected as withholding tax. If the state collects these billions it needn't drastically slash subsidies and push poverty to a more dangerous level - the last thing a truly 'peoples' party could do.
Power load-shedding, although inescapable, continues in a destructively disorganised fashion; it occurs almost as suddenly as death and the victim is industrial productivity. As a consequence, scores of industrial units are packing up laying-off hundreds of workers everyday. This is adding to the millions already living below poverty line due to rising food prices and thus increasing the chances of civil unrest at a massive scale.
Even if PPP can overcome popular reaction to not fulfilling its promise to restore the judiciary, the unabated rise in food prices could overturn all the grand plans of Asif Zardari including his dream of becoming the PM. It is baffling why he can't see that Mr. Musharuff lost his huge popularity (a fact acknowledged by Mr. Musharuff) because he was blind to the market distortions created under the PML-Q regime.
Besides Western support, Mr. Musharuff has survived because, atleast until end-2005, things weren't as bad as they are now. PPP has nothing in terms of such a record except its past two failed terms in office, whose memories are coming alive. Yet, it appears interested more in gaining control of out fits that spend huge sums of taxpayers' money e.g. KBCA and CDGK. Such actions will only widen the cracks in the country's fragile political set up.
There could be nothing more damaging than undermining local governments in the name of asserting provincial government authority. Local governments had begun to provide services and relief to taxpayers at their doorsteps instead of begging for them from federal and provincial governments. All actions that undermine local governments would manifest to the people the return of the 'wadera raj' whose time is well over.
Curtailing local government authority is made more controversial by the route (executive orders) adopted for it. It is claimed that PPP holds 87% of the peoples' mandate. If this claim is correct, it only burdens PPP with a tougher task of delivering, and in the process setting the right traditions. Mere takeover of local government without offering a workable plan and a team with proven track record for delivering on it raises serious suspicions.
The way the Foreign Secretary was forced out of office is another example of how executive orders are becoming the administrative norm. That's not all. It also proves that the regime shuns advice; supposedly its members know everything about everything, or what matters more to the PPP is pursuing a course that serves its interests, even if it is at the expense of harming the long-term interests of Pakistan.
On the law and order front, the siege over territories under control of the 'Mehsud' Taliban (the faction whose chief was accused of Ms. Benazir's tragic assassination by Mr. Musharuff) has been lifted. With Mr. Musharuff still in the presidency, this faction's inclination for a truce with the government is perplexing. If Mr. Musharuff wrongly accused Abdullah Mehsud, he should admit it. If that isn't the case, why is the PPP being soft on Abdullah Mehsud?
These, and many other unanswered questions lend credibility to the conclusion Nicolas Sarkozy reached about Pakistan. But he can be proved wrong if the PPP makes course correction by curbing its flair for proving itself all-powerful and always right, which it isn't. Post-December 27 riots had a lesson for our rulers; seemingly it wasn't learned by the PPP. If that is the case, Pakistan could become 'a house of cards'. Let us hope Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's party won't allow it.